Blog

Short blog posts, journal entries, and random thoughts. Topics include a mix of personal and the world at large. 

No recession?

You know things have truly reverted back to the pre-pandemic times when Zoom - the one technology that hard-carried us all through the pandemic - has also announced layoffs. It seems everybody is preparing for a recession that just can’t seem to arrive. The January jobs report was surprisingly strong, and the unemployment rate is at its lowest in 50 years. Doesn’t seem like we’re heading into a recession, does it?

I see layoffs in the tech sector as a mere reversion back to the pre-pandemic status quo. These companies hired massively for a reality and eventually that no longer exists. Zoom in particular tripled its headcount during the pandemic. Now that universities like the one I work at will soon return to completely in-person learning, the demand will taper off dramatically. In general, inflation and interest rates are high, therefore the appetite for spending is muted.

Even if most people are gainfully employed.

Still, it sucks tremendously to be laid off. And it doesn’t seem like the tech companies are firing only the people they’ve newly hired for the pandemic. That cohort is cheap compared to the folks who’ve been there for decades. When it comes time to trim the excess, there’s zero obligation to cut based on seniority. I directly know of a friend who got laid off from SalesForce, and she’s been there way before the pandemic years.

That’s what happens when the job is not unionized. I am glad my workplace is. If and when the cut hammer ever strikes again, at least I will have a buffer of 10 years of service credit to insulate me. No guarantees, of course. Which is why like everybody else, I am also personally preparing for a recession that may not arrive.

Going anywhere.