Blog

Short blog posts, journal entries, and random thoughts. Topics include a mix of personal and the world at large.

Stay put and wait

With AI companies buying up all the world’s memory chip supply, it’s tough out here for the average Joe buying or building computers. Our combined economies of scale cannot begin to match a batch order from the likes of OpenAI. So of course you have entire chip companies saying they are bowing out of the consumer business altogether. There’s more than enough money serving B2B. Because fuck us, that’s why.

Just today the base model Mac mini is marked as unavailable at the Apple Store. Too many people are buying them to run LLMs locally. Higher tier models with increased memory and storage are backordered for months. Other manufacturers have computers to sell you immediately, but they’ve raised the pricing tremendously in response to the chip shortage.

It’s simply not a good time for the computing enthusiast. First was the GPU pricing squeeze from years back, and now another critical component is seeing highly inflated prices. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, other components will surely be affected as well. These companies cannot swallow increased logistics costs for very long. Amazon Prime free shipping might go from two days to four.

As I type this out on my 2021 MacBook Pro, I guess numerically speaking I can use an upgrade. But the current aforementioned computing landscape is so constraining that I reckon it’s prudent to keep waiting if possible. Thankfully the first generation of Apple Silicon chips remain eminently powerful and efficient, even some five years later. I have to say it was smart of me to have the foresight to spec for 32 GB of RAM when I bought this laptop. Even as successive macOS releases use more and more resources, this M1 MacBook Pro is still not running out of memory space.

The memory chip shortage is also affecting memory card prices. I’ve been looking to buy higher capacity SD cards for my camera, but the pricing has ballooned 30 to 40% in the past month. I guess I don’t need the additional space anymore! I rather offload the camera more often than pay the inflated pricing.

Staying put and waiting is the play right now.

Under pressure

Mustn’t forget to check your tire pressures periodically! Even the most sealed up wheel and tire combination will lose air overtime. Especially those us driving around in internal combustion cars. In these troubled times of exorbitant gasoline prices, every bit of conservation helps. You are figuratively throwing money away if the car is running lower than optimal tire pressures. Friendly reminder the prescription is on the front driver door jam.

I wonder how many people who can otherwise install chargers at home are kicking themselves right now for not having an electric vehicle. Notorious PG&E shenanigans aside, the likelihood of electricity rates going up 25% over a span of weeks is practically impossible. Not so, as we are seeing with gas prices. Fully electric vehicle owners are sure to be pretty smug right about now.

If this war with Iran goes on for long enough, the paradigm of how the United States view EVs might permanently switch to the positive. The federal EV tax credit expiration was a setback for growth. Those that want an EV probably already bought one. However, consistently elevated gas prices can be incentive enough for those outside the fence to consider opening the gate. Especially those with considerable commutes.

Ride-share and delivery drivers, too. There’s no way the apps are benevolent enough to raise the prices - and therefore the commission for the drivers - to accommodate the sudden spike in gasoline. Nor would customers be cognizant enough to tip more. So the workers will just have to eat the additional, not unsubstantial, variable cost. When the margins are already purported to be minimum wage levels, who’s going to deliver DoorDash to make zero dollars?

Those food delivery drivers already on those zippy electric scooters must also be pretty smug right now. President Trump got rid of the EV tax credit, but his war with Iran just might re-reverse the tide of adoption. The longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the more of an accelerant it is for Americans switching to electric motivation.

Price of doing business

I think we’re all so used to free shipping these days (thanks, Amazon) that when we actually do have to ship a package, the actually pricing and be rather alarming. Absolutely nothing is immune to the recent high inflation. Parcel delivery shall not be exempt. It begs the question just how “free” free shipping really is. Surely the cost is baked into the (hefty) margins.

That, or retail giants have such enormous economy of scale that they get a hefty discount from logistic companies. Meanwhile, peasants like us have to pay the full freight.

I erroneously bought a part for my VW GTI. In order to get a refund I needed to pay for shipping back to the seller. Fair enough. Unfortunately, the item weights eight pounds, and I had to send it all the way to the opposite American coast. UPS Ground - the cheapest option - was $55! That is quite insane. If the part wasn’t worth magnitudes more than that shipping fee, I would have simply eaten the cost, or resell it on eBay.

It’s just the cost of doing business.

There may or may not be a solid business reason for coffee chains to sell a cup of drip coffee for nearly $4 these days - I simply don’t care. Paying that much for a plain cup of Joe is inconceivable. Because I’m old enough to remember when it was under $2. $4 was fancy latte territory. Even if I can afford it, my conscious won’t allow me to pay that much for store coffee. Thank god that same $4 can still buy you a hot dog and a slice of pizza at Costco.

My Keurig coffee maker and compostable coffee pods from San Francisco Bay Coffee will suffice nicely until deflation happens. If it happens.

Stop it. Get some help

Headlines are buzzing about the high price of new cars. The average transaction price for new vehicles in America is now over $50,000. The average monthly payment for a new car is nearly $750. As is the wont during these high inflation times (why would Joe Biden do this?), people are grumbling about the ever increasing cost of personal motor transport.

I do not have an ounce of sympathy for this situation. The beauty of the capitalistic system is that it takes two to proverbially tango. Sling all the greed accusations you want against the automakers and dealerships: car buyers still have to sign on the dotted line. The Truth in Lending Act dictates that consumers are given complete information on exactly what sort of loan they are contracting themselves for. No excuses.

The average new car may be selling for over $50,000, but a perfectly fine Toyota Corolla sedan can be had for $22,275 starting. It’s got power everything, and Apple CarPlay. And because it’s a Toyota, it will last forever with minimal maintenance. Now you may say that you need something bigger for your family. That’s a want, not a need. The Corolla is equipped with child seat anchors in the rear. For sure it’s not as convenient as a Toyota Sienna minivan, but do you have $40,120 starting for a Sienna?

New cars aren’t expensive - the cars people want to buy, are. If stretching your wallet for that three-row SUV is going to be financially difficult, then perhaps it’s just not in a cards for you. No one is entitled to a fully-loaded SUV with all the trimmings. Consumers’ unwillingness to purchase within their means isn’t the fault of the banks or the automakers. Let’s not strip agency - and blame - from fully functioning adults.

I will however get on Porsche’s case for raising prices so dramatically over the last year…

Staying ahead

I was disappointed to see the Greek yogurt - my go-to breakfast food of choice - increasing in price at my local Whole Foods. The staples are getting pricier again! At least my staples are. I’m still smarting over the price of coffee jumping 20% thanks to President Trump’s tariffs. Priced out of a coffee? That would take a whole lot.

I don’t expect rich people to have scars from the high inflation of the post-COVID period. Which is why we shouldn’t expect the Trump administration to back down from import tariffs. These people understand fully well that it’s the American customers paying the tax. They’re just all wealthy enough to absorb it without care.

Meanwhile, the rest of us are simply, hopelessly, trying to stay ahead of inflation. Especially during this time of uncertain labor markets (unless you are a genius A.I. engineer). My place of employment is going through a budget contraction. I’m lucky to have a job, never mind any hope of yearly salary increases to keep up with inflation.

That means the purchasing power of my current salary will continue to decrease. To combat it means having to let go of some other spending. The aforementioned pricier Greek Yogurt? Well, I typically buy a can of something to drink whenever I enter Whole Foods. I gave that up soon as I saw the 50 cent increase. I have water at home, thank you.

Similar choices who have to made in the future, so long as inflation continues, and my income remains static. Perhaps Progressive will raise the insurance on my car again. To compensate, the Disney Plus subscription will have to go.

What's the deal with ballpark food?

Honestly, why is it so expensive?

I mean, it’s always been expensive. But with the inflation of the past few years, it has gotten utterly insane.

For the first time this baseball season, I attended a Giants game in person. While game tickets have largely remained the same price due to the team sucking for the past years, the food prices at Oracle Park have gone straight up the scale. I can’t believe I paid nearly 10 dollars for a small hot dog - way smaller than what you can get at Costco for $1.50.

And my ballpark favorite - the chicken tenders and fries - is nearly $19! People seem happy to pay the high prices, too. The lines for food were long and plentiful. Maybe I’m the only poor amongst a sea of high-income earners. Probably true! The median individual income for San Francisco (2023 data) is estimated to be around $90,000 (Thanks, ChatGPT). I make less than that, so that means more than 50% percent of the population makes more than me. (I paid attention in math class.)

Anyways, because I seldom go to the ballparks these days (back in the early 2010s, I’d go to dozens every season), splurging that amount on food is no big deal. It’s all psychological, you know? Because I’ve experienced the food price being almost half of its current levels, it’s very painful to pay for that. My anchor point is way different than someone who’s never been to the ballpark and seeing the price list for the first time.

As I’ve many times before, I don’t adjust for inflation.

I am priced out

I was walking through my local Target store when I noticed a 20 ounce bottle of Coke now costs $3.19? And that is before tax! I am old enough to remember when 20 ounce bottles were 99 cent. A dollar bill at the vending machine was enough to obey your thirst.

Talk about things I am priced out of. Buying soda drinks at a store is one of them. Filtered water is just fine, thank you very much.

But then people would argue that saving that three dollar on a daily soda (or four dollars on a daily coffee) is not going to get me to buying a house. The math on that in the San Francisco Bay Area is indeed tragic. Those people are right: keeping that $3 in my pocket is merely pissing in the wind of houses that start at a million dollars.

A better use for that $3 is to buy the lottery. At least there’s a infinitesimal chance!

In the grand scheme of things, buying a soda bottle here and there is not going to monetarily affect me one bit. But it’s the mindset that counts here. We can all agree that spending money is easy. The American credit system is fantastic in that regard. Therefore I think we have to train our resistance muscles (not to be confused with resisting a certain presidency). The calculus has to be more than: can I afford it, if yes, then buy!

Saying no to the $4 coffee helps me say no to a new iPad Air I’ve been eyeing, or a newer laptop to replace this “aging” M1 MacBook Pro. Those are the money decisions that really slice chunks: the hundreds and thousands of dollars at a time. Money that can otherwise grow significantly if put to proper investing.

If I really want to drink soda, I’d go buy in bulk from Costco.