Blog

Short blog posts, journal entries, and random thoughts. Topics include a mix of personal and the world at large. 

The price is wrong

Honda has (finally?) launched a fully electric vehicle for the North American market: the Honda Prologue. As expected, the Prologue is a mid-size SUV thing - the most popular type of vehicle in the States - designed to haul people and stuff. The layman would not know that this all-electric Honda is co-developed with General Motors. Not quite a re-badge, but it’s definitely a GM car with Honda window dressing on top.

Not that in it of itself is a bad thing. What Toyota has done with the Supra - essentially a re-styled BMW Z4 roadster - seems to have worked (and continues to work) just fine. I see plenty of Supras on the road, driven by guys who look a bit too young to be able to afford a $60,000 sports car.

The main problem I see with the Honda Prologue is that it is too expensive. The poverty FWD trim level starts at $48,795. For the AWD trim with some bells and whistles that most people would want, you’re looking at well into the $50,000 mark. Worse: as of writing, the Honda Prologue does not quality for the Federal EV tax credit ($7,500). I would bet only the true die-hard Honda fans would buy one of these over a Tesla Model Y (low $40,000s after tax incentives). That, or Honda will have to heavily discount the Prologue.

The Model Y has another advantage: buyers don’t have to beg some asshole at a dealership to take their money.

To be competitive, I think the Honda Prologue needs to start the high $30,000s. Because that’s what a gas engine equivalent - the Honda Pilot - starts at. Honda can’t charge an EV premium for what is a mass-market product, because that would simply drive buyers towards Tesla. Ford found out about this with its electric Mach E SUV. The problem is that Honda - GM, really - cannot build the Prologue cheap enough to sell in the $30,000s. Meanwhile, Tesla can produce Model 3 sedans and sell profitably in the high $30,000s all day long. It’s a competitive advantage that’s evident in the sheer amount of Model 3s and Model Ys we see on the road.

The first legacy automaker to market with an all-electric mid-size SUV selling in the $30,000s will be the one to take a chunk out of Tesla.

Minecraft.