Blog

Short blog posts, journal entries, and random thoughts. Topics include a mix of personal and the world at large.

The price is wrong

Honda has (finally?) launched a fully electric vehicle for the North American market: the Honda Prologue. As expected, the Prologue is a mid-size SUV thing - the most popular type of vehicle in the States - designed to haul people and stuff. The layman would not know that this all-electric Honda is co-developed with General Motors. Not quite a re-badge, but it’s definitely a GM car with Honda window dressing on top.

Not that in it of itself is a bad thing. What Toyota has done with the Supra - essentially a re-styled BMW Z4 roadster - seems to have worked (and continues to work) just fine. I see plenty of Supras on the road, driven by guys who look a bit too young to be able to afford a $60,000 sports car.

The main problem I see with the Honda Prologue is that it is too expensive. The poverty FWD trim level starts at $48,795. For the AWD trim with some bells and whistles that most people would want, you’re looking at well into the $50,000 mark. Worse: as of writing, the Honda Prologue does not quality for the Federal EV tax credit ($7,500). I would bet only the true die-hard Honda fans would buy one of these over a Tesla Model Y (low $40,000s after tax incentives). That, or Honda will have to heavily discount the Prologue.

The Model Y has another advantage: buyers don’t have to beg some asshole at a dealership to take their money.

To be competitive, I think the Honda Prologue needs to start the high $30,000s. Because that’s what a gas engine equivalent - the Honda Pilot - starts at. Honda can’t charge an EV premium for what is a mass-market product, because that would simply drive buyers towards Tesla. Ford found out about this with its electric Mach E SUV. The problem is that Honda - GM, really - cannot build the Prologue cheap enough to sell in the $30,000s. Meanwhile, Tesla can produce Model 3 sedans and sell profitably in the high $30,000s all day long. It’s a competitive advantage that’s evident in the sheer amount of Model 3s and Model Ys we see on the road.

The first legacy automaker to market with an all-electric mid-size SUV selling in the $30,000s will be the one to take a chunk out of Tesla.

Don't buy used

Word on the street is that Ford has (again) lowered pricing on its Mustang Mach E electric car. The base real-wheel drive version can now be had for (just) under $40,000. Ford is also throwing in $7,500 on leases. Combining with the federal EV tax credit of another $7,500 makes the base Mach E a highly attractive option if you just need a simple electric runabout. I would consider one if I actually needed a car.

And because I wouldn’t want to buy a used electric vehicle. You simply cannot trust it. The thing no one seems to be talking about is battery degradation. Much like the battery in our smartphones, the cells in electric cars degrade with use and time. But how much it degrades does not scale linearly with mileage. Depending on the usage pattern - how often it’s charged, how fast, to what level, etc - an EV with 50,000 miles can potentially have a healthier battery than a 20,000 miler.

This is a critical piece of information in electric vehicles because the battery is everything. A degraded battery cannot motivate the car to the same number of miles as new on once charge. At least with a combustion car you can expect the same range in a high-mileage gas engine.

The problem is we have no way of knowing about battery degradation. The electric cars (currently) don’t show the health percentage (our smartphones do). Venturing into the vast menu of a Tesla Model 3 doesn’t reveal this information. I think manufacturers should include battery health indicators, plus showing how much maximum range has been lost as well. As I said, range in an electric car is everything.

Beg some asshole

On a recent perusing of Reddit, I encountered a discussion about how difficult it still is to buy a new car these days. Inventories remain low, therefore dealership markups are still a thing to contend with. Basic supply and demand: whichever party has the power can dictate the terms.

Of course, that doesn’t mean people can’t complain about it. Especially those who want to buy a new car, but not exactly in a hurry to do so. These buyers can wait it out and try different dealerships to get the best price possible. But that in itself can be a time consuming, frustrating process. You’re begging people to shut up and take your money, yet they won’t do it. One Reddit commenter summed it up perfectly: “I just fundamentally can't bring my self to go beg some asshole to take my 60K.”

I think that is a big reason why the Tesla Model Y is the best selling vehicle - in the world - for the first quarter of 2023. Tesla sells cars directly to the customer, one price (that can change periodically), no markups or discounts. You can do the entire transaction on your smartphone, never needing to talk to a dealership salesperson. There isn’t a finance manager to upsell you on extended warranties either. In a time when when finding a car at MSRP is akin to hitting the lottery, the Tesla method of selling is highly attractive.

The pendulum will eventually swing back in the customer’s favor. Unless the traditional automaker constrain supply intentionally. That would be too cynical. I don’t think the automakers can sell (especially) electric vehicles while still relying on the dealership/markups method. Tesla’s direct-sale model will simply continue to eat their proverbial lunch. Those with the money and patience want low hassle above all else.

You're waiting for this?

Last week I was at the local Safeway which has an electric vehicle charging station in its parking lot. On a mid-week morning there was a line of cars waiting to use the four already occupied charging ports. Are these people really sitting there for god knows how long, waiting to “fuel up”? Charging an electric vehicle is far slower than filling up a combustion vehicle with gas. The advertised maximum charging rate only occurs in spurts, and in ideal conditions.

My current stance on electric vehicles is: if you cannot charge at home, then you’re better off buying gasoline-powered. The public charging infrastructure (outside of Tesla’s own superchargers) is still not ready for primetime. I follow quite a bit of car people on twitter, and the consensus I’ve gather is that the public charging network is slow, inconsistent, and not enough. The convenience of being in and out of a gas station in under 10 minutes is still a massive advantage.

I’m genuinely surprised that people are even willing to wait that long for a charging spot. The amount of impatience I’ve witness on the driving road these days is high. You have drivers honking at cars with the audacity to wait for pedestrians to cross before making a turn. What do they want? To run them over? Worst is when I see such impatience on weekend mornings. You’re aggravated on a Sunday morning? I have to assume you’re simply in a hurry to go die.

Personally I do not have the facilities to charge a car in my home. Therefore an electric vehicle does not factor in my future anytime soon. My time is worth way more than spending an hour just to charge up a car.

The ICE era is truly over

With Ford set to announce a fully electric version of its venerable F-150 pickup truck - the best selling vehicle in America for the past few decades - the era of the internal combustion engine is truly over. We’ve reached the point of no return in the transition to electric vehicles. The question is only how fast can we get to mass adoption, and how quickly can the public charging infrastructure build out to compliment the EV transition of nearly every major automaker.

I think that if you have the capability to charge at home, your next new car should be fully electric. Unless you drive an absurd amount of miles for your commute, there’s absolutely no need use any public charging point. An overnight charge on any standard 240 volt home system should be able to adequately charge an EV. For the few instances when you absolutely need the range (think road trips), you can always rent a regular gas-powered car. Don’t be like that person who drives a pickup truck, but only goes on a Home Depot haul once a year.

I am more certain than ever that my BMW M2 Competition will be the last new internal-combustion car I buy. The only petrol car I would get to replace it with is something used, and something with a Porsche badge. Otherwise, any future new car will surely be electrically motivated. Other than the current state of the public charging infrastructure, there’s really no downside to electric vehicles (perhaps price). Once you’ve experienced that EV shove and the silent ride, there’s no going back.

Obviously I am keen to hold on to the M2 for quite awhile. Hopefully by the time I am ready for my personal transition to an electric car, public charging points will be way more abundant and reliable than it is now. I see no greater incentive for that to happen than America’s best selling vehicle - the Ford F-150 - going fully electric.

The forever car?

Sometimes, the flow of life gives you outcomes that you didn’t think would be it, but is nevertheless the way it’s going to be. You just have to accept it. My Porsche 911 GT3 was going to be the forever car, but life circumstances forced me to sell it. Its replacement, the decidedly cheaper BMW M2 Competition, is meant to be a stop-gap until I’m in the position to buy another GT3. However, it’s looking more and more likely the M2 will be that forever car. At least one with an internal-combustion engine.

Spending six-figures on a sports car was a YOLO play, one that I don’t think I’ll repeat again. I miss my departed GT3 dearly, that sweet naturally-aspirated engine that revs to 9,000 RPM. Unless I hit some big financial windfall in the future, it’ll be a bad idea to spend that much on a car again. It’s a box I’ve already ticked on the list, so the solace and satisfaction of having owned a 911 for a time will have to suffice.

The headwinds in the automotive sector are blowing heavily towards full electrification. The next new car I buy will probably have an electric motor, rather than something that burns gasoline. Sports cars like the BMW M2 are going to be relics of a prior petrol age, when driving fun also involves a sonically-pleasing howl from exhaust pipes. An age when the driver has direct connection to the mechanicals, rather than a bunch of wires and bits. The changing world of cars might force the M2 Competition as the one I keep for a long time to come, the last of its ilk.

That’s not really something to complain about, however. The little BMW coupe is a fantastic car, and super fun to drive. If it is to be the last internal-combustion car I will ever buy and own, then that’s quite okay. Even if it really should’ve been a 911 GT3. The flow of life is what it is, and I’m choosing to go along with it.

An EV should be your next car

To get around the relatively vast San Francisco State campus, we have these small electric trucks to drive around. They are similar in size to the kei cars you see in Japan: small engine, narrow size, supremely maneuverable. Especially during these COVID times, when the campus is largely empty of people, it’s very fun to zip around these things. A few years ago we got fully electric versions to replace the aging gasoline fleet. It’s with these tiny trucks where I had my first prolonged experience with EVs.

Conclusion: I think anybody with the capability to plug-in at home should buy an EV, and never look at gasoline vehicles ever again.

Our trucks at work are always charging and ready to go. The electric motor have more than enough torque to push a full load of cargo up an incline. Best of all, there’s no emissions to speak of, so when there are people mingling about on campus, we’re not choking up the place with smog. Range is not a problem: there’s enough on a charge to drive around campus multiple times over. Soon as we return to base, it goes straight to the plug.

If you have the capability to charge at home, there’s really no downside to an EV. Should on the few occasions you need to go somewhere far, you can always rent a regular gasoline-powered car. It’s the trap of thinking you need to have one singular car for all scenarios that’s giving people pause for EVs in regards to range. I get it: the current charging infrastructure is not broad enough and too cumbersome (who wants to wait over half an hour to “fuel” up?)

Which is why I caveat that only those with charging capabilities at home should buy an EV.

Just as you shouldn’t buy a pickup truck for the few times out of the year you think you’ll hit the hardware store, or a Jeep Wrangler for the few times you’ll go off-roading, don’t let the notion of a long road-trip deter you from buying a fully electric vehicle as your next car. EVs are the future, and I see everyday how awesome that future is at work.